Reach, target and likely schools, explained
A college is not a reach, a target or a likely school on its own. It is one of those for you, and the same college can carry a different label for the student sitting next to you.
What the three words mean
- Likely (often called a safety): a college where your chances of admission look strong.
- Target (sometimes called a match): a college where your chances are roughly even.
- Reach: a college where your chances are low, either because your grades and scores sit below the students it admits or because it turns away most of the people who apply.
CampusFit adds a fourth, High Reach, for colleges where admission is a long shot for you.
Where CampusFit draws the lines
CampusFit gives each college an estimated chance of admission for you, then turns that number into a label.
| Label | Your estimated chance |
|---|---|
| Likely | About 70% or more (never shown above 95%) |
| Target | About 40% to 70% |
| Reach | About 15% to 40% |
| High Reach | 15% or less |
The estimate starts from the college's own admit rate and moves up or down with how your grades, test scores, class rank and activities compare with what the college reports about the students it admits. At a public university, living in the same state helps.
Why a college's admit rate is not the label
A college's admit rate is the same for everybody. Your chance is not. Here are four colleges from the list of Maya, the app's sample student: Ohio, a 3.7 GPA, a 1320 SAT, planning to study biology and life sciences.
| College | Admits overall | Estimated chance for Maya | Label for Maya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University | 81% | about 90% | Likely |
| The College of Wooster | 60% | about 70% | Target |
| College of the Holy Cross | 18% | about 30% | Reach |
| Georgetown University | 13% | about 8% | High Reach |
A student with different grades or scores would see different numbers, and sometimes different labels, at the same four colleges. Admit rates are from the U.S. Department of Education's College Scorecard.
Very selective colleges are a reach for everyone
When a college turns away most of its applicants, strong grades are not enough to make it a safe bet. CampusFit builds that in:
- Where fewer than 20% of applicants are admitted, the label is never better than Reach, and the estimate is never more than three times the college's own admit rate.
- Where fewer than 35% are admitted, the label is never better than Target.
- Where a college requires test scores and you have none to send, the label is never better than Reach.
What can move a college from one label to another
The things that feed the estimate: your GPA (weighted and unweighted), how demanding your classes are, your SAT or ACT score, your class rank, and your activities. In the app, the what-if simulator lets you change any of them and see which colleges move. For Maya, raising the SAT from 1320 to 1600 moves 7 of the Reach colleges to Target, while 2 of the 3 High Reach colleges stay High Reach: a higher score does not make a very selective college a safe bet.
How many of each should be on a list
There is no single right answer, and a school counsellor who knows you is the best person to ask. The principle is balance: enough likely and target colleges that you will have real choices, and enough reaches to stay ambitious. CampusFit's balanced list keeps at most 10 Likely, 14 Target, 10 Reach and 6 High Reach colleges, and you can ask for a safer mix (up to 14 Likely and 6 Reach) or a more ambitious one (up to 6 Likely and 12 Reach). Maya's list came out at 10 Likely, 14 Target, 10 Reach and 3 High Reach. There is more in how to build a balanced college list.
Get the labels for your own list
CampusFit is an iPhone app that works all of this out for you. The survey is free and needs no account; seeing your list needs CampusFit Premium ($49.99 a year after a 14-day free trial, or $9.99 a month). See how CampusFit works.
Labels and estimated chances are estimates worked out from publicly reported figures. They do not predict or guarantee any admissions decision. Always confirm requirements and deadlines with the college itself.